Threshold bias
Notes
Claim
We give greater importance when something passes a threshold even when reality is continuous and not discrete Progress and change follow non-linear trajectories with thresholds Binary thinking reduces complexity to false dichotomies.
Explanation
The threshold is a form of The first number sets the frame for all that follow. Once it is out there, we look at everything differently even though deep down we know it is completely arbitrary. Change happens suddenly once a threshold is crossed is the real version of this, sometimes a threshold does mark an actual phase change, but most of the ones we react to don't, we just treat them as if they did.
Why it matters
Examples
Turning 30 is much more meaningful than being 29 and 11 months. We would surely accept something that is free and avoid it if it costs 5 cents even though 5 cents is negligible. Similarly, converting something from 99% probability to 100% is much more valuable than from 95% to 96%.
Supporters
Decision points force re-evaluation or action by creating deliberate triggers makes the same point from the other direction, the threshold we set to trigger a decision is just as arbitrary as any other line we draw, yet once it's there we treat it as if it carries real weight.