Survivors Bias

Notes

Claim

Survivors Bias is when we base our assumptions only on the most easily available data Focusing on easy metrics blinds us to what matters. like looking at only successful companies and adopting their habits without looking if failed companies had similar habits.

Explanation

Why it matters

Meaning that only by Flipping assumptions reveals hidden possibilities and better solutions they were able to avoid the bias and find the true solution. This shows how Biased inputs produce biased conclusions can be detrimental to our thinking.

Examples

A common example is when they wanted to armor planes during WW2 and wondered which areas are the weakest. When they looked at the hits on the planes after returning from a mission, they saw that most hits were around the wings and tails, so these are the areas that needs to be reinforced.

But actually, the conclusion should be the complete opposite. By looking at only those who returned from mission, what we actually see are the hits that are not fatal. It is the areas that remained unhit among the survivors that are most likely to be fatal and therefore needs to be reinforced, for example the cockpit and the engines.

Supporters

Opposers

Open questions

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Overview

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