Survivors Bias

Notes

Survivors Bias is when we base our assumptions only on the most easily available data streetlight effect. like looking at only successful companies and adopting their habits without looking if failed companies had similar habits.

A common example is when they wanted to armor planes during WW2 and wondered which areas are the weakest. When they looked at the hits on the planes after returning from a mission, they saw that most hits were around the wings and tails, so these are the areas that needs to be reinforced.

But actually, the conclusion should be the complete opposite. By looking at only those who returned from mission, what we actually see are the hits that are not fatal. It is the areas that remained unhit among the survivors that are most likely to be fatal and therefore needs to be reinforced, for example the cockpit and the engines.

Meaning that only by Reverse Thinking they were able to avoid the bias and find the true solution. This shows how Selection Bias can be detrimental to our thinking.

Visual

Overview

🔼Topic:: Cognitive Bias (MOC) ◀Origin:: 🔗Link::