Over Confidence

Notes

We tend to overestimate our abilities and underestimate the difficulties we face, Dunning-kruger effect is a prime example of such a case, we are sure we know everything while in reality we know nothing (or very little. The opposite of over confidence is Imposter Syndrome, where we devalue our Competence. Another classic example of over confidence is the "this wont happen to me", where we believe we are immune to failure, or that our circumstances are different that we would be able to avoid it, despite the statistics. It's like how most people think they are better-than-average drivers, although it doesn't make statistical sense.

To protect ourselves from over confidence, we need to constantly reexamine what we think we know and how likely are we to be true. It requires deep Rethinking. Unfortunately, those with over confidence tend to do the opposite, they double down on only consuming information that supports their preexisting beliefs, and they avoid challenging themselves so they stay within their comfort zone where they are competent enough to serve their over confidence.

A bit of Confidence is important, without confidence we would be too timid and fail to act, or maximize our potential. However, when we have too much of it, it becomes tied to our Ego. In these cases, to admit that we were wrong is painful for our ego.

In contrast, a bit more Skepticism, would remove the Attachment between our confidence and our ego, allowing us to operate like a scientist who runs experiments, changing and adapting their hypothesis about the world as they discover new information, instead of being stuck in the same outdated belief.

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Overview

🔼Topic:: Cognitive Bias (MOC) ↩️Origin:: 🔗Link::