Lindy Effect

Notes

The Lindy Effect is a simple method for how long do we expect something to last. The idea is that something should last at least as long as it has existed so far. For example: "books have been around for hundreds of year, so I expect them to be around for at least hundreds of years more" or "this new shiny app is only here for a couple of months, it might disappear by next season".

My issue with this is that it can easily make hugely biased assessments. Due to rapid changes in our modern times, things that existed for a long time might soon disappear, and new things are always coming up, that's why the lindy effect predict that they won't live long, but the answer is that its likely that most things, old and new, won't live long.

Also, the lindy effect confuses Is vs Ought when it's taken into morality considerations, for example "husbands have beaten their wives for thousands of year, so we should continue to do that for thousands of years more", the appeal to tradition fallacy

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Overview

🔼Topic:: Cognitive Bias (MOC) ◀Origin:: 🔗Link::