Counterfactual

Notes

Claim

The counterfactual is a collection of all the things that are not "real", but perhaps could have been. For example, to think about the results of the decisions you didn't make means to think about the counterfactual.

Explanation

It's a form of complex predictions because it requires us to think about a future that is not a direct continuation of the current situation as it is (which is hard enough), but rather create a prediction based on a different set of facts.

It's very hard, to say the least, it is the least visible idea there is, because it is by definition not tied to current facts. It requires being open minded and with Examining ideas rigorously before accepting them as true.

Why it matters

Thinking about the counterfactual is the best way for us to evaluate our decisions in a broader context, considering for example the Every choice costs the alternatives you gave up and our role in the grand schema of things.

Examples

Although it sounds clear and obvious, the logic behind Feedback is information that enables behavioral improvement is about exploring the counterfactual - "If you would have done x instead of y, you would have gotten a better result". The Pre-mortem anticipates failure modes to enable preparation process shares this similarity, by trying to explore multiple potential outcomes (and not just the most likely one).

Supporters

Opposers

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