The Scout Mindset

✒️ Note-Making

🔗Connect

⬆️Topic:: Mindset (MOC) ⬆️Topic:: Critical Thinking

💡Clarify

🔈 Summary of main ideas

1. Search for truth, don't protect it - Seeing the world clearly is key for growth, happiness and success. We must be seekers of truths, and avoid thinking that what we know is true for certain, like a scout that constantly updates their map based on what they find out. When you encounter something contradicting or unexpected, don't dismiss it, lean into it with curiosity
2. We overestimate and overuse soldier's mindset - To have a soldier's mindset, aka super protective of your beliefs even if it counter to the truth has it's benefits. Usually they are short term - to have more comfort and confidence thinking that you are not wrong and someone else is to blame. A scout mindset however has a long term benefit that's hard to see at first. It takes time to find the truth, and there are many mistakes to learn from on the way
3. Use thought experiments to question your beliefs - Try to think about the situation from different angles to shake yourself free from a soldier's mindset, like "what would you recommend a friend to do?" or "if the evidence was reversed, would you change your mind?"
4. Think in bets - Confidence is not just 100% or 0%. Trying to measure your exact confidence, like saying "I'm 60% confident this will work" will be a good measure across choices to see whether your gauge reality clearly, and help you make better choices depending on the expected value of each one.
5. Express your reasoning - People trust others more when they explain why they think the way they do. Saying you're not 100% confident in something helps you come up with steps to fill the missing gap, and convince others as it shows you have thought this through.
6. Find reasonable people - Escaping your echo chamber is not enough, it will only make you more entrenched with your opinions. To really open your mind, try to find places that promote truth above all else, and reasonable people to talk to from the other side. Comment wars lead to nothing, discussion leads to change
7. Hold your identity lightly - Attaching your identity to your beliefs makes you more defensive and less likely to change. Try to make a scout mindset as your main identity, and treat identities as something fluid and changeable, a mere temporary description rather than a fixed permanent thing.

🗒️Relate

⛓ by following this method, what will happen? What is the goal of this book?

1. You will have a better grasp of reality, which is a foundation for happiness and success
2. You will be able to learn from failure

🔍Critique

✅ relevant research, metaphors or examples that helps to convey the argument

1. Scout mindset - To see the world clearly, to question your assumptions, to make truth seeking our main goal, and constantly update our beliefs according to facts
2. Soldier mindset - To be protective of our beliefs, to attach our identity to what we believe in. To be critical of any opposing beliefs, and seek only evidence that supports our stance.
3. Motivated reasoning - to set a different standard for evidence based on whether it supports or opposes your beliefs. You ask "can I believe it" (low bar) for supporting evidence, and "must I believe it" (high bar) for contradicting evidence.

❌ the logical jumps, holes or simply cases where it is wrong...

🧱 Implementations and limitations of it are... The implementation tips are scattered throughout the book, and are covered briefly. In that sense it is more of a motivation book rather than a practical one.

🗨️Review

💭 my opinions on the book, the writers style... I really liked the section where she points out all the advantages of a soldier mindset and why we tend to stick with it, it gave so much depth and nuance to her writing. Her book became slower towards the end, but other than that it is a very good book.

🖼️Outline

📒 Notes

Introduction

Good judgment comes from seeing the world as it is Objectivism rather than how we wish it to be Subjective Reality. This is the scout's mindset: to explore our misconceptions, remain open to changing our opinions, and question our assumptions scientific method.

Recognizing that we might fall prey to biases does not help us avoid them Akrasia. It is not a matter of lacking knowledge but rather about our attitude Morality is both rational and emotional.

The belief that we must deceive ourselves to be happy and successful—such as Manifesting or being overconfident—does more harm than good. Ignoring or distorting information is not a path to success, nor do "realistic" people lack joy. Those who see the world clearly still experience optimism and cheerfulness Pragmatism.

INTRODUCTION

• scout mindset: the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were. (Location 71)
• Scout mindset is what allows you to recognize when you are wrong, to seek out your blind spots, to test your assumptions and change course. (Location 72)
• our judgment isn’t limited by knowledge nearly as much as it’s limited by attitude. (Location 92)

The Case for Scout Mindset

Two Types of Thinking

We often believe we are clear-headed, yet we fall prey to motivated reasoning, a combination of Conformation Bias and Rationalism. When we encounter evidence that supports our beliefs, we ask, Can I believe this? (the answer is usually "yes"). In contrast, when faced with contradictory evidence, we ask, Must I believe this? (the answer is usually "no"). We may not even realize we are engaging in self deception.

A scout, on the other hand, asks, Is it true? Truth. They seek to understand what is truly "out there" instead of what they hope to see. They recognize that any knowledge we have of the world, any "map of reality," is merely a Shallow copy of true reality ("the map is not the territory"). Scouts do not need to defend their beliefs; they approach them with Curiosity, understanding that improving the map is more important than avoiding being wrong.

Two Types of Thinking

• The tricky thing about motivated reasoning is that even though it’s easy to spot in other people, it doesn’t feel like motivated reasoning from the inside. When we reason, it feels like we’re being objective. Fair-minded. Dispassionately evaluating the facts. (Location 205)
• In contrast to directionally motivated reasoning, which evaluates ideas through the lenses of “Can I believe it?” and “Must I believe it?,” accuracy motivated reasoning evaluates ideas through the lens of “Is it true?” (Location 266)
• Being in scout mindset means wanting your “map”—your perception of yourself and the world—to be as accurate as possible. (Location 278)
• In scout mindset, there’s no such thing as a “threat” to your beliefs. If you find out you were wrong about something, great—you’ve improved your map, and that can only help you. (Location 281)
• Being the kind of person who welcomes the truth, even if it’s painful, is what makes other people willing to be honest with you. (Location 306)

What the Soldier is Protecting

What are the benefits of having a soldier's mindset?

There are emotional benefits:

1. Comfort - It makes life more manageable by framing unachieved good things as sour grapes (e.g., "This promotion would have hurt my work-life balance") and achieved bad things as sweet lemons (e.g., "This crisis will make me stronger") to avoid disappointment.
2. Self-esteem - You avoid information to protect your Ego.
3. Motivation - It is harder to work diligently at your startup when you know the low success rates. You ignore harmful information to maintain motivation deliberate ignorance.

There are also social benefits:

1. Persuasion - It is much easier to persuade others if we believe wholeheartedly (even if it is false).
2. Image - We want to project a certain image to others, such as wearing fancy clothes and pretending to have high status. We "fake" the image we want others to believe.
3. Belonging - Believing a lie is often preferable to being alone. Sharing a belief fosters a sense of community, which is essential.

A soldier's mindset is common and sometimes useful, but it is rarely the best approach.

What the Soldier Is Protecting

• when you advocate changing something, you should make sure you understand why it is the way it is in the first place. (Location 339)
• The more we can get ourselves to genuinely believe those claims, and the more evidence and arguments we can collect to support them, the easier it will be for us to persuade other people of them (Location 452)
• We use motivated reasoning not because we don’t know any better, but because we’re trying to protect things that are vitally important to us—our ability to feel good about our lives and ourselves, our motivation to try hard things and stick with them, our ability to look good and persuade, and our acceptance in our communities. (Location 509)

Why Truth is More Valuable Than We Realize

We often have contradicting thoughts, shifting between soldier and scout mindsets depending on the trade-off of what we gain or lose from each mindset.

The problem is that we are not adept at evaluating that trade-off because:

1. Overestimating the Soldier Mindset - We are prone to Present Bias, which leads us to value short-term benefits from self-delusion—such as a burst of motivation and a boost to our ego—more than the painful actions that will help us grow.
2. Underestimating the Scout Mindset - The scout mindset has compounding advantages that are meaningful but take time and repetition to develop. Each choice between short-term or long-term gains may seem insignificant, but over time, choosing the scout mindset will help form beneficial habits.

Sticking with a soldier's mindset creates a vicious cycle because admitting the truth is a painful experience filled with Shame. This leads us to tell another lie, often a bigger one, which buries us deeper in deception.

However, it is better to rip off the band-aid sooner rather than later. Remember that people don't care or notice your faults as much as you think.

Why Truth Is More Valuable Than We Realize

• These and other valuable scout habits build up over time. But in any particular instance, it’s hard for the “Incrementally improve my thinking habits” benefit to compete with the vivid and immediate rewards of soldier mindset. (Location 624)

Developing Self-Awareness

Signs of a Scout

The issue with motivated reasoning is that we believe we are being rational throughout the entire process.

We think intelligence protects us, but it hardly does. The only way to develop a scout mindset is through practice Fake it till you make it.

You can practice it by:

1. Actively seeking Feedback.
2. Admitting when you are wrong Accusation audit.
3. Protecting yourself from self-deception—such as using blind testing.
4. Noticing when you are drawn toward the soldier mindset Self Reflection.

Signs of a Scout

• Feeling reasonable, being smart and knowledgeable, being aware of motivated reasoning—all these things seem like they should be indicators of scout mindset, yet they have surprisingly little to do with it. The only real sign of a scout is whether you act like one. (Location 820)
• being willing to say “The other side has a point this time,” being willing to acknowledge when you were wrong—it’s things like these that distinguish people who actually care about truth from people who only think they do. (Location 932)

Noticing Bias

Motivated reasoning seems logical because we lack access to the Counterfactual. We do not know how fixed our choices are, even if circumstances were different. We use the current context as an excuse, even though we would likely make the same (biased) choice under different circumstances.

However, there are thought experiment that allow us to glimpse into a counterfactual world:

1. Double Standard Test - Twist the scenario (or your role in it). If it had happened to you or a close person, would you still think or act the same?
2. Outsider Test - Imagine an outsider facing the same choice. What would they do? Zoom out.
3. Conformity Test - Imagine your colleagues saying the opposite of what they currently say. Would you still feel the same? Conformism.
4. Selective Skeptic Test - Imagine the evidence is reversed, supporting the opposite conclusion. Would you still find it credible?
5. Status Quo Bias Test - What if the status quo were different? Instead of debating B when A, you would be debating A when B. How would that affect your decision? Status-quo bias.

How Sure Are You?

Overconfidence is dangerous. We often revert to Binary Thinking of either 100% certainty or 0%. We need to think in terms of ranges of certainty, such as 60% or 70%. This better reflects our degree of confidence in our knowledge.

To test this, we can "wager" how likely we are to be right. We will have no problem betting large sums on things we are completely certain about, but as our confidence decreases, we will likely be willing to bet lower sums.

Thriving Without Illusions

Coping with Reality

Difficult moments will arise—moments of self-doubt or even despair. We often do everything to avoid these feelings, but unfortunately, we frequently choose Coping strategies that are harmful, especially when we need to be clear-headed, such as denial or blame.

However, there are also effective coping strategies, such as:

1. Make a Plan - What should you do "in case" the horrible truth is true? For example, if the criticism you received is valid.
2. Notice Silver Linings - Recognizing the good is not self-deception because you do not deny the bad; instead, you energize yourself by acknowledging that you still have some positives in your life.
3. Focus on a Different Goal - Shift your focus to a more helpful goal.
4. Things Could Be Worse - Instead of being disappointed by how things are, compare them to a worse outcome.

Coping with Reality

• we’re not failures, that the world isn’t a horrible place, and that whatever life throws at us, we’ll be able to handle it. (Location 1438)

Motivation Without Self-Deception

There is a false dichotomy that to pursue our goals, we must deceive ourselves; otherwise, the risks and obstacles will demotivate us.

Instead, we should focus on whether the goal is worth pursuing given our current circumstances and alternative options. If so, we have the right to give it our all.

A goal worth pursuing is not necessarily one with high chances of success. It is about making a good bet, calculating the expected Utility, and pursuing it if it is positive. That is why we need a clear head throughout the process. Knowing the odds of our success is critical in every decision; it is not just about having a goal and being blindly motivated. It is about the flexibility to change our minds based on circumstances and making necessary adjustments to improve our chances.

Motivation Without Self-Deception

• You’re doing yourself a disservice if you throw yourself into the pursuit of a goal without asking: “Is this goal worth pursuing, compared to other things I could do instead?” (Location 1670)
• The goal isn’t to attribute everything to luck. It’s to do your best to mentally separate out the role that luck plays in your results from the role that your decision-making plays, and to judge yourself based on the latter. (Location 1801)
• accepting the possibility of failure in advance is liberating. It makes you bold, not timid. It’s what gives you the courage to take the risks required to achieve something big. (Location 1820)
• Instead of being motivated by the promise of guaranteed success, a scout is motivated by the knowledge that they’re making a smart bet, which they can feel good about having made whether or not it succeeds. (Location 1843)

Influence Without Overconfidence

There are two concepts of confidence:

1. Social Confidence - How we are perceived; for example, a person who struts may appear weaker or less knowledgeable.
2. Epistemic Confidence - How sure we are of the information we hold.

The two are often confused, leading to situations where our tendency to acknowledge the odds backfires and is perceived as a lack of confidence.

To reduce this effect:

1. Provide context—explain why you have doubts.
2. Have a plan—what can you do to improve your confidence?

As long as we present ourselves with confidence, even while acknowledging our lack of confidence in our knowledge, we will be perceived as trustworthy.

Changing Your Mind

How to Be Wrong

Having a better grasp of reality means we cannot ignore our mistakes. The scout mindset advocates for:

1. Reviewing your mistakes more often.
2. Treating mistakes as opportunities for learning.

There is nothing wrong with being wrong. It is possible that you made the best choice you could at that time. Failures are not marks of shame; they are simply signs that you need to update your beliefs based on the facts Bayes probability.

How to Be Wrong

• most of the time, being wrong doesn’t mean you did something wrong. It’s not something you need to apologize for, and the appropriate attitude to have about it is neither defensive nor humbly self-flagellating, but matter-of-fact. (Location 2186)
• Discovering you were wrong is an update, not a failure, and your worldview is a living document meant to be revised. (Location 2236)

Lean into Confusion

When you encounter information that contradicts your beliefs, do not dismiss it. Similarly, do not assume that everyone else is stupid or naive. Approach their position with curiosity; you never know what you might discover.

Over time, contradictory evidence can stretch our current beliefs until we reach a Critical mass and experience a paradigm shift—a moment when the house of cards representing our former beliefs collapses and is replaced by a different network of beliefs better suited to the information we have gathered.

Lean In to Confusion

• don’t write off the other side as crazy. When their behavior confuses you, lean in to that confusion. Treat it as a clue. You’ll often find that it leads you to the information you need (Location 2332)

Escape Your Echo Chamber

Leaving your echo chamber might have the reverse effect; we may double down on our opinions when we hear the other side.

However, if we engage in discussion with someone we empathize with, trust, and find reasonable and respectable, we may open our minds and be willing to change.

It takes mental effort and Patience to listen to the other side.

Rethinking Identity

How Beliefs Become Identities

Ideologies can quickly turn into identity wars Us vs them, making it much harder to see things clearly or change our minds. We protect our beliefs fiercely because we feel our identity is under attack.

How Beliefs Become Identities

• The problem with identity is that it wrecks your ability to think clearly. (Location 2910)

Hold Your Identity Lightly

When we hold our identity strongly, we are prone to conflict and quickly defend it from perceived threats. We may even argue with those closest to our beliefs to ensure our identity shines and does not blend with someone else's. The closer the lines, the harder we work to distinguish them.

In contrast, holding our identity lightly allows for flexibility and clarity in knowing when to fight and when to cooperate. We will be guided by truth rather than ego. Identity should be viewed as a description—a piece of clothing we can replace—not as intrinsic as the color of our skin.

Hold Your Identity Lightly

• Holding an identity lightly means thinking of it in a matter-of-fact way, rather than as a central source of pride and meaning in your life. It’s a description, not a flag to be waved proudly. (Location 2942)

A Scout Identity

The advantage of a scout mindset emerges when we embrace the identity of a scout change starts from the inside out. If we prioritize intellectual humility, skepticism of our knowledge, and improvement over ego, we can thrive.

A Scout Identity

• you might as well aim to please the kind of people you’d most like to have around you, people who you respect and who motivate you to be a better version of yourself. (Location 3283)
• Personally, I find all those facets of scout mindset inspiring—the willingness to prioritize impact over identity; the confidence to be unconfident; the courage to face reality. But if I were to name one single facet I find most inspiring, it’s the idea of being intellectually honorable: wanting the truth to win out, and putting that principle above your own ego. (Location 3361)